Handicapping The NHL's Western Conference

The meat grinder that was the NHL’s Western Conference last year, didn’t get any easier for the upcoming season. In many ways, almost every one of the top 8 in the West last year, got better in the off season. The sobering part for the Hawks is, most of them are in the Central Division.

 

It would be hard to fathom any of the bottom 6 Western teams a year ago, making it to the post season this year. Neither Phoenix, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Calgary, or Edmonton did enough to get them in the 90+ point range it will take to make the Western top 8. And although Nashville added some well-worn veterans in James Neal, Derek Roy, Mike Riberio, & Ollie Jokinen for Laviolette to work with in his first full season, it seems like a stretch for them to compete for the top 8 in a field that got increasingly better.

 

So, how does the top 8 from last year, stack up in their positioning for this year? I see some of those teams getting significantly better, some getting marginally better, and some saying the same by way of addition/subtraction or standing pat.

Significantly Better:

Anaheim
The Ducks were at or near the top of the Western standing the entire year. They wound up with the #1 seed, finished with 117 points, and was behind Boston by 1 point for the President’s Trophy. They probably will enter the season with a ‘Blackhawk’ sized chip on their shoulder after losing the final 2 games in the Kings series. Then they add Ryan Kesler which gives them that strength at center like LA. Goaltending is their issue. 

Minnesota
Didn’t look like much during the regular season, but showed just how tough they are to play against in the playoffs. They lacked the scoring to be legitimately dangerous, but added Thomas Vanek and will have a full season with Pominville. 

Dallas
Had a late season surge and gave Anaheim a run in the 1^st round. Upper end scoring team already, then added Spezza and Hemsky. Defense is an issue, but their goaltending is well above average.

Marginally Better:

Chicago
We know their strengths, we know their weakness. Richards could thrive between Kane and Saad, and one could argue that Kane has that break through 100 point season as a result of Richards assisting. The question is, which player/s are gone by opening night? 

St. Louis
The Blues and Hawks battled for the Central lead all season. The Blues really pulled away in the final month, but a 6 game losing streak in the final week gave the Central to Colorado. They lacked that #2 center at the top, and picked up Paul Stastny. Brian Elliott who has deserved a #1 spot for 2 seasons running will get it this year.

No Change:

Los Angeles
When you win the Cup, I guess there isn’t an urgency to do anything. The Kings did just that. They didn’t really look scary in the regular season, and had some good fortune during their Cup run. 

San Jose
I don’t know if the Sharks are using the term ‘panic situation’, but they should be. When your only the 6^th team in league history to blow a 3-0 playoff lead, as your Cup window is closing, it aint good. Then the only significant moves the Sharks made was to strip their long standing best players of their Captaincy.  

Colorado

The newly crowned Central Division champs lost leadership and scoring in Stastny, and replaced it with Jerome Iginla who didn’t really light things up with Boston. Their opening round loss to Minnesota did more to question the validity of their finish, and if Patrick Roy can get the same from that young, defense challenged roster.

Hardware

Obviously the Presidents Trophy is in play for the Hawks as the season winds down, and regardless of how ya feel about that albatross, it's historic when you consider it would only be the second time in team history it's happened.

The other obtainable piece of regular season hardware is the Jennings Trophy. The enigma of this award is that it's for the team allowing the fewest goals in the regular season, but awarded to the goaltender/s that have played at least 25 games. Now this in itself will be problematic in a 48 game season, but lets not worry about that now.

The Hawks have won the Jennings 3 times in team history, all awarded to Ed Belfour in '91, '93, & '95. Now not withstanding Belfour's Hall Of Fame career, the Hawks had some deep lock-down defensive squads in the early '90s which directly attributed to the awards. In '91 they went: Chelios, Wilson, Manson, Yawney, Konroyd, Brown, McGill, & Russell. In '93 they went: Chelios, Smith, Kucera, Marchment, Kravchuk, Brown, Russell, & Muni. In '95 the went: Chelios, Suter, Smith, Weinrich, Carney, Russell, Diduck, & Smyth.

Having the opportunity for the Jennings confirms that this years defensive squad is not only playing at an outstanding level of preformance by NHL standards, but has the depth and experience to rival those great blue line corps in the '90s. I'm not sure how the squad of Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Oduya, Leddy, Rosival, & Brookbank will be perceived years from now if they win the award, but this is how it plays out for Hawks in regard to pulling in both pieces of hardware this season.

Jennings TrophyBoston - 81 ga - 10 games to play
Hawks - 83 ga - 9 games to play
Ottawa - 88 ga - 9 games to play

Presidents TrophyHawks - 64 pts - 9 games to play
Pittsburgh - 60 pts - 8 games to play
Anaheim - 59 pts - 8 games to play

I don't know if any team has ever won the Presidents Trophy and Jennings Trophy in the same year, but if the Hawks pull off the feat, adding the Stanley Cup could put them in the annals of one of the most successful NHL seasons of all time.

The Original Six Division

In a past Sports Illustrated article about the NHL's original six teams, it was pointed out how those franchises generate a large portion of the leagues overall revenue. I started thinking about how historic it would be to have all of those teams in the same division, & what a bold move it could make in the marketability of the league.

Since currently their are 5 teams in every division, pulling 6 out of any given division would cause imbalance and also cause an odd number of divisions. So with re-alignment on the NHL docket already, this would be a prime opportunity to implement a division that pays homage to the tradition of the leagues roots.

Another aspect I thought would be interesting is that the Original Six division would not be in either conference. It would be a stand alone 'super division', but each team would have an established playoff conference designation, with 3 in the Eastern and 3 in the Western, so it would be possible for 2 Original Six teams to meet in the Stanley Cup Finals. Here's what I was thinking.

Original Six Division
Chicago - W
Boston - E
Montreal - E
NY Rangers - E
Toronto - W
Detroit - W

Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
New Jersey
Buffalo
NY Islanders
Washington

Northeast Division
Pittsburgh
Ottawa
Philadelphia
Columbus

Southeast Division
Tampa Bay
Nashville
Florida
Carolina

Western Conference
Central Division
St. Louis
Dallas
Minnesota
Winnipeg 

Northwest Division
Vancouver
Edmonton
Colorado
Calgary 

Pacific Division
Anaheim
San Jose
Los Angeles
Phoenix


Then what I'd do is give the Rangers, Boston, & Montreal an Eastern Conference designation, & Chicago, Detroit, & Toronto a Western Conference designation. Which ever team won the Original Six division*, they would get a top four designated conference rank based on point total. Either the Eastern or Western Conference would have an extra divisional winning seed dependant on which team won the Original Six division. All other teams not winning thier division would fall into rankings based on their point totals. So come playoff time you'd see rankings like this.

Eastern Conference
1. New Jersey*
2. Pittsburgh*
3. Tampa Bay*
4. Montreal
5. Boston
6. Nashville
7. NY Rangers
8. Philadelphia
---------------
9. Ottawa
10. Buffalo
11. Florida
12. Carolina
13. NY Islanders
14. Washington
15. Columbus

Western Conference
1. Chicago*
2. St. Louis*
3. Vancouver*
4. Anaheim*
5. San Jose
6. Dallas
7. Minnesota
8. Los Angeles
----------------
9. Toronto
10. Phoenix
11. Colorado
12. Edmonton
13. Winnipeg
14. Calgary
15. Detroit

Divisional re-alignment keeps all teams in geographically correct divisions, and all divisions would have an even amount of teams. Although some teams would change divisions, the only teams that would be forced to change Conferences would be Columbus, and Nashville. A unique opportunity to pay homage to the history and tradition of the league, while restoring some of the rivalries from the Original Six era. Oh yah, .... anyone catch where Detroit finished in this model?

It's Early But, ......

The Hawks have opened the season with three impressive wins over three of the best teams in the Western Conference from a year ago. Although that in itself should raise an eye in terms of the power rankings, it’s the style of play in which they accomplished this, that should make observers take notice. Obviously it's early, but the 4 basic themes that were issues last season, look to be addressed, solidified, and turned around as of now.

1) Goaltending. Still too early to make a call, but last night is exactly the kinda game you can go deep into the playoffs with. Crawford looked confident and stayed upright on most saves, as opposed to his first game when he went to his knees to cover up almost everything. Defensive breakdown not withstanding, I still think he shoulda saved that 1st goal, but the save on Tarasenko alone shows an increased confidence over last year. He played larger than his size in the crease, and was in position to put pads on most shots coming on net. Question remains, can he keep it up, or even get better.

2) Defense. The common consensus with Bowman had been, he seemed to accumulate a lotta number 5-6 caliber defenseman that couldn't cover the flaws in the goaltending, and he likely over paid for them as well. Now I won't argue contrary to that point on Montador, who certainly seems destined to a compliance buyout in June, but the rest of the unit is performing better defensively than in the Cup year. Keith & Seabrook are a given, but the pairing of Hjalmarsson & Oduya has been just as good. Hjalmarsson is playin’ with an aggressive swagger and confidence which has gotta in part come from the steady play from his partner. Shot blocks, poke checks, & swift passes outta trouble have all been apparent with this pairing. Bowman's biggest 'under the radar' move had to be the Rozsival signing which made almost no headlines as it came days before the lock out. Looking back at Rozsival’s role in the playoffs last year with Phoenix, he routinely had top pairing minutes on a team which relied greatly on defense. His pairing with Leddy has allowed the 20 year old, 3^rd year defensemen to develop the confidence that was missing much of last year. Leddy has shown to be consistent and defensively sound these first three games, even with a mental snafu here and there. When he has made the unforced error, his speed and skating ability have allowed him to cover that up.

3) Puck possession. The biggest difference between the 2010 Hawks, and the 2011 & 2012 Hawks had to be the amount of time they held onto the puck. Offense was the main beneficiary of this; but defensive zone breakouts, getting to loose pucks, and odd man breaks were all areas that took the biggest hit in the last couple seasons. Once the skill of players like Campbell, Ladd, Versteeg, and Brouwer were gone, the Hawks had to rely far too much on the top 6 forwards to move the puck as opposed to playing their system. This year has been nothing short of a focused workman-like approach to basics. Get the puck in deep, go to the net, and put shots on goal. With the added defensive depth, contributions of younger guys, and a healthy top 6, they seem to be able to maintain control much more than the last couple years.

4) Special teams. Last year the Hawks power play (15.2%) ranked 26^th out of 30 NHL teams in the regular season. By way of comparison, their penalty kill (78.1%) ranked 27^th out of 30 NHL teams. For the Hawks to have scored the 5^th most goals in the NHL last year, but to have the 26^th ranked power play speaks volumes as to the issues that contributed to their demise. Acknowledging the early nature of the season, these two problem areas seem to be trending in the right direction. At 90% the Hawks penalty kill is currently ranks 5^th, and the power play has improved to just over 23%. One would think with the offensive talent in the top 6 forwards, the power play should be something that will continue to get better, and the early turn around on the PK shows the commitment to the first three aforementioned themes.

The first week of the season has illuminated issues with some teams around the league that would generally be worked out in training camp. Rough starts in Philadelphia, Carolina, Washington, Detroit, Vancouver, LA, & Phoenix all might get resolved in the next few weeks, or might be a pre-cursor to real problems that might contribute to missing the playoffs in a 48 game season. When training camp gets shortened from four weeks to one, and includes no exhibition games, your bound to see rough starts as some clubs work out the kinks. Luckily the Hawks seem to be moving in the right direction from last years issues, ………… and it is still early.

Blackhawk Trades & Buyouts

The next two weeks should give us plenty to ponder in terms of the Hawks roster, and who's on it. First and foremost, the defense is a pretty crowded unit right now. The Hawks return 8 defensemen, and that doesn't count Dylan Olsen. Now anyone can argue that Bowman has assembled a conglomeration of mediocrity, but every one of the 8 are veteran players with plenty of experience. Overlooking pairings for the moment, the Hawks could run out.......

Keith / Seabrook
Hjalmarsson / Oduya
Montador / Leddy
Brookbank / Rozsival

There is also the fact that they have some depth in the minors with Olsen and Bret Lebda. As Bowman took it in the shorts last year for never addressing or acquiring a true no. 2 center, I would guess that's gonna be the 1st order of business via a trade of one or more of those guys. Who goes, who's available, and if Bowman has the stones to make it happen all remain unclear.

Then there's the issue of the 2 compliance buyouts the team will have after the conclusion of this season. These buyouts were one of the more intriguing things to come outta this new CBA, and teams like Vancouver (if they can't unload Luongo prior) had to be doing cartwheels. On the flip side, since burying an NHL contract in the minors will count against the cap, one would guess Olesz's 3.1 mil would be the first buyout. After that there's nothing glaring that the Hawks are harped with, but a case can be made for either Frolik @ 2.3 for 1 year, Oduya 3.3 (2 years), or Montador 2.7 (2 years) could be options if they aren't traded before then.

With the Hawks sitting at 64 mil, and with all teams being allowed to operate up to 70 this year, they seem to be in good shape. Next year however, is when a fire drill of activity should happen league wide as every team scrambles to get down the the 60 mil hard cap. The team actually has about 4 mil in expiring contracts after this year (Stalberg, Mayers, Bickell, Rosival, & Emery), but it's getting creative with those amnesty buyouts that could enable them to pick up some space and land a free agent that just so happened to be bought out by another team trying to make the cap.

Time for the big boy pants Stan.

Long Term Lockout Damage

For league ownership to elude that they induced a lockout, for the good of long term NHL viability, no longer has validity. I'm reading over & over that the damage done at this point is so profound that neither side will come out of this with a win, just degrees of loss. This article linked below in particular examines the marketability damage that has been done, and the epic repercussions this stupid pissing contest has caused.

Lockout Damage

It's also now being conveyed by some media sources including Pierre LeBrun, that a number of owners have speculated the leauge may not come outta a season long lockout with 30 teams. LeBrun wrote.......

"And in a comment that I'm hearing more and more from people on the ownership side, I'm not sure the NHL returns with 30 teams on the other side of a lost season. Can the weaker markets truly survive this? That's damage both sides would feel."

So as players stick by Donald Ferh, and allow him to take a year of their careers away, probably reducing the number of overall jobs; and the owners stick by Gary Bettman and allow him to diminish league interest, marketability and profit, they will succeed in doing exactly what they said they were trying to prevent. Long term league stability and growth should come outta this debacle at an all time low, and the future uncertain.

Long gone are the warm & fuzzies of Original 6 teams in Detroit, Chicago, & Boston winning Cups. Long gone is re-newed excitement in Los Angeles & New York. And long gone is the buzz surrounding Winnipeg and Minnesota. All that's left now is resentment, anger, and bitterness. You boys must be very proud of yourselves.